According to the ILO’s World Employment and Social Outlook Trends 2022 report, global unemployment is expected to remain above pre-COVID-19 levels until at least 2023.

The 2022 level is estimated at 207 million, compared to 186 million in 2019. The ILO’s report also cautions that the overall impact on employment is significantly greater than represented in these figures because many people have left the labour force. 

The downgrade in the 2022 forecast reflects, to some extent, the impact that recent variants of COVID-19, such as Delta and Omicron, are having on the world of work, as well as significant uncertainty regarding the future course of the pandemic.

The effects are being felt in labour markets in all regions of the world, although a great divergence in recovery patterns can be observed. The European and the North American regions are showing the most encouraging signs of recovery, while South-East Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean have the most negative outlook. At the national level, labour market recovery is strongest in high-income countries, while lower-middle-income economies are faring worst.

The disproportionate impact of the crisis on women’s employment is expected to last in the coming years, the report says. 

“Two years into this crisis, the outlook remains fragile and the path to recovery is slow and uncertain”, said ILO Director-General, Guy Ryder. “We are already seeing potentially lasting damage to labour markets, along with concerning increases in poverty and inequality. Many workers are being required to shift to new types of work – for example in response to the prolonged slump in international travel and tourism”.

Experts note that, as in previous crises, temporary employment created a buffer against the shock of the pandemic for some. While many temporary jobs were terminated or not renewed, alternative ones were created, including for workers who had lost permanent jobs. On average, the incidence of temporary work did not change.