Tashkent’s Water Diplomacy: From National Reforms to Regional Synergy in Central Asia

On April 22, the next Summit of the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (IFAS), one of the region’s prominent organizations, will be held in Astana.

The upcoming meeting of the Heads of the Founding States holds special significance, as it marks the transition of the Fund’s chairmanship to Uzbekistan for the 2027-2029 period. This will be the country’s third mandate, following leadership terms in 1997-1999 and 2013-2016. 

It is worth noting that Tashkent was at the forefront of IFAS’s creation. Yet resuming this leadership role after a decade occurs in a fundamentally transformed regional landscape. Today, Uzbekistan offers not only significant expertise but also a comprehensive portfolio of globally recognized initiatives.

The Transformation of Uzbekistan’s Water Sector for Sustainable Development

Facing intensified climate pressures alongside robust economic and demographic growth, Uzbekistan has committed to a fundamental restructuring of its water resource management, making it a core priority of state policy.

Objective data underscore the complexity of the situation. Over the past 15 years, per capita water availability in the republic has fallen by more than half, from 3,000 to 1,400 cubic meters per year. According to the Ministry of Water Resources, the annual volume of water resources has dropped to 51-53 billion cubic meters, representing a 21% decline from 1991 levels (64 billion cubic meters). 

A significant challenge remains the country’s heavy reliance on external sources, with approximately 80% of its surface water (41 billion cubic meters) originating outside the country. While the water shortage did not exceed 3 billion cubic meters before 2015, expert forecasts indicate that the deficit could reach 7 billion cubic meters by 2030 and 15 billion cubic meters by 2050.

Recognizing the scale of these risks, Uzbekistan – under the leadership of Shavkat Mirziyoyev – is undertaking a comprehensive modernization of the water sector. In less than a decade, the area using water-saving technologies has surged from 28,000 hectares to over 2.6 million hectares, now covering more than 60% of all irrigated land. Alongside these efforts, large-scale work is underway across the country to concretize canals and reconstruct flume networks. By 2030, these systemic measures are projected to yield annual water savings of up to 15 billion cubic meters.

Along with this, the industry is undergoing digitalization. Currently, 11 information platforms are being deployed to manage the water cadastre, monitor pumping stations, and track the status of land reclamation. Over the past four years, the management of 100 major water facilities has been fully automated, the “Smart Water” system has been introduced at 13,000 water intake points, and more than 1,700 pumping stations have been equipped with real-time online monitoring devices.

At the same time, the national economic model is undergoing strategic adaptation. According to the Center for Economic Research and Reforms, the share of agriculture in GDP has steadily declined from 32% in 2017 to 19% by 2024. Notably, despite this decline, the total volume of agricultural production has increased by 17%. This divergence confirms a successful transition toward more rational, efficient use of resources and higher productivity.

Regional Synergy and Water Diplomacy

At the same time, Uzbekistan has achieved significant results in international water cooperation. Most of the initiatives proposed by Tashkent within the framework of IFAS have been successfully implemented thanks to the consolidation of regional efforts and the active support of international partners.

The primary vector of this work has been the large-scale ecological rehabilitation of the Aral Sea region. A network of local water bodies was created on the dried seabed and in the Amu Darya delta, including the Sudochye, Khojakul-Karajar, and Maipost-Domalak lake systems, the Mejdurechensk reservoir, and the Muynak, Rybachy, and Jyltyrbas bays. 

In addition, colossal forest reclamation projects are underway. To date, green plantations have been established across approximately 2 million hectares. Over the next two years, protective belts are planned for an additional 400,000 hectares. The expansion of the protected natural area network – which has now reached 4.6 million hectares in the Aral Sea region – has not only significantly reduced the emission of toxic dust but also created the necessary conditions for the revival of local flora and fauna.

International recognition of these efforts was solidified in 2019 at a high-level conference in Nukus, where the Aral Sea region was designated a ‘Zone of Ecological Innovations and Technologies’. This initiative, first proposed by President Shavkat Mirziyoyev at the 72nd session of the UN General Assembly and the IFAS Summit in 2018, received universal support in 2021 when the UN General Assembly unanimously adopted the corresponding Resolution.

An important addition to political initiatives was the 2018 launch of the UN Multi-Partner Trust Fund for Human Security for the Aral Sea Region. Proposed by Uzbekistan, the Fund serves as an effective mechanism for mobilizing donor resources and coordinating international efforts to address the region’s most pressing socio-economic and environmental challenges.

Along with the development of such instruments of financial and humanitarian assistance, Uzbekistan consistently views IFAS as the “preeminent platform for regional interaction in the water and environmental sphere”, playing a unique role in ensuring the stability of Central Asia. Through the qualitative strengthening of this Organization, Tashkent intends to promote the region’s collective interests on the global stage.

Furthermore, Uzbekistan has achieved a diplomatic breakthrough by spearheading multilateral cooperation formats. A steadfast commitment to the principles of good-neighborliness and proactivity has paved the way for constructive dialogue on the joint management of the Amudarya and Syrdarya water resources.

Concrete examples of this synergy include the agreements among Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan on the operation of the ‘Bahri Tojik’ reservoir, as well as the landmark decisions by Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan on the Toktogul reservoir and the ‘Kambarata-1’ HPP construction project.

In light of the growing water shortage, a logical next step is to transition to long-term strategic planning. To this end, at the Seventh Consultative Meeting of the Heads of State, the President of Uzbekistan proposed designating 2026-2036 as the ‘Decade of Practical Actions for the Rational Use of Water in Central Asia’. Recognizing that effective management is unattainable without a highly skilled workforce, Tashkent also plans to establish a Regional Center of Competence in Water Management at the TIIAME National Research University.

A critical element of regional water cooperation remains establishing dialogue with Afghanistan. Uzbekistan advocates the gradual involvement of Kabul in a regional partnership based on a balance of interests. As practical steps, Tashkent proposes joint monitoring of transboundary rivers, real-time exchange of hydrometeorological data, and the creation of permanent expert platforms. These measures are intended to lay the foundation for fair and rational water use throughout the region.

In summary, large-scale internal reforms, combined with a proactive foreign policy, have laid a solid foundation for Uzbekistan’s upcoming chairmanship of IFAS. During its 2027-2029 mandate, the state intends to prioritize the comprehensive renewal of the Fund’s regulatory and institutional framework. At the same time, efforts will remain focused on improving socio-economic conditions, strengthening ecological safeguards, and identifying sustainable ways to increase the region’s water supply. Ultimately, Tashkent aims to elevate IFAS’s international standing, transforming water and ecological cooperation into a cornerstone of sustainable development and a guarantor of long-term stability for all Central Asian nations.

Lobar Umarova,

Senior Research Fellow,

Institute for Strategic and Regional Studies under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan