Plans for the medium- and long-term development of the fuel and energy sector reviewed

President Shavkat Mirziyoyev reviewed a presentation on the prospects for developing the electric power sector and improving project management mechanisms in the fuel and energy industry.

The development of the energy sector is a key factor in ensuring economic growth, investment activity, and the well-being of the population.

In recent years, private-sector capital and foreign investment have been actively attracted to the industry, and major projects have been implemented to create new generating capacity, develop renewable energy sources, and modernize power grids. As a result of the reforms, the total capacity of solar and wind power plants has exceeded 6.3 gigawatts. The number of hydropower plants has surpassed 100, and their combined capacity has approached 2.5 gigawatts. The expanded use of renewable energy sources is also enabling substantial annual savings in natural gas.

By 2030, Uzbekistan aims to grow its economy to $300 billion, while the population is expected to exceed 41 million. Electricity consumption in the industrial sector alone is projected to rise from 38 billion to 53.5 billion kilowatt-hours by 2030. The growth of electric transport and data centers will also increase demand on the power system.

In this context, the need was noted to expand generating capacity ahead of demand growth, increase the transmission capacity of power grids, and ensure sufficient reserve capacity.

According to the plan, by 2030, the country’s generating capacity will increase to 46.1 gigawatts, enabling annual electricity generation of about 129 billion kilowatt-hours. By 2035, generating capacity is expected to reach 57.2 gigawatts, and annual electricity generation is planned to increase to 154.7 billion kilowatt-hours.

During the presentation, several scenarios for growth in electricity consumption were considered.

According to estimates, under a moderate consumption-growth scenario, the balance between generation and demand will be maintained through 2030. However, accelerated growth in the economy, industry, electric transportation, and digital infrastructure will require additional generating capacity.

The President emphasized the need to formulate energy sector plans that account for the high pace of economic growth and to maintain sufficient reserve capacity at all times.

Based on this, proposals were considered to construct additional wind power plants and energy storage systems, as well as to accelerate the implementation of solar and wind energy projects.

At the same time, the need was noted to review projects with low economic efficiency, no clearly identified sources of financing, or protracted implementation periods. The main criteria for selecting new generating capacity should include not only its capacity, but also the cost of electricity generation, the possibility of grid connection, compatibility with energy storage systems, and the impact on the overall energy balance.

As the share of renewable energy sources increases, the importance of energy storage systems is growing as well. 

Such systems store electricity generated by solar and wind power plants during the day and deliver it to the grid during evening peak demand. This reduces the need to burn additional gas at conventional power plants and enhances the overall resilience of the power system.

Currently, 26 energy storage projects with a total capacity of 4.2 gigawatts have been developed, 17 of which are under implementation. It was proposed to develop additional projects in this area by 2030.

Along with expanding generating capacity, the President emphasized the need to develop in advance the backbone transmission networks and substations required to deliver electricity to consumers.

By 2030, plans call for building 9 new 220-kilovolt substations and 7 new 500-kilovolt substations, as well as nearly 5,000 kilometers of new power transmission lines. This will enable the connection of new power plants to the national power system and expand electricity exchanges between regions.

In particular, several strategically important 500-kilovolt power transmission lines and new substations are scheduled to be commissioned between 2027 and 2029. During the presentation, particular attention was paid to construction progress, financing issues, and measures to address existing delays.

The issue of creating new infrastructure for the digital economy by leveraging Karakalpakstan’s significant potential for developing renewable energy sources was also discussed.

It was proposed to link prospective wind power plants in the region to data centers with a capacity of 1 gigawatt by constructing a new substation and 220-kilovolt transmission lines. This infrastructure will enable the integration of new data centers into the power system, attract high-tech investment, and make effective use of the region’s existing energy potential.

During the presentation, particular attention was paid to proposals to fundamentally transform the system for developing and implementing investment projects in the sector.

In practice, many projects begin with an investor’s initiative. Various agencies coordinate issues related to land allocation, grid connection, technical specifications, tariffs, and investment agreements separately. This leads to delays, duplication of functions among government agencies, and insufficient consideration of the power system’s needs in individual projects.

In this regard, a new management model was proposed.

From now on, energy projects will be developed primarily based on the projected needs of the economy, the population, and the regions. Demand will be determined first, after which the necessary generating capacity and infrastructure will be planned. Projects will be prepared with the land plot, grid connection point, and technical solutions identified in advance, and investors will be selected through an open and competitive process.

The tasks and responsibilities of each agency will also be clearly defined. The Ministry of Economy and Finance will prepare demand forecasts, the Ministry of Energy will be responsible for strategic planning and technical policy, and the Agency for the Development and Regulation of the Energy Market will regulate market relations and tariffs. Government agencies responsible for investment will attract investors through open competition, while local authorities will address land allocation and the necessary infrastructure.

It was also proposed to prepare accurate forecasts of energy resource demand by region and sector and, on this basis, adopt three-year investment plans to be updated annually. This will enable the advance, coordinated planning of the development of generating capacity, power grids, and the necessary infrastructure.

In the long term, a concept to ensure the supply of fuel and energy resources through 2050 is planned. The concept will comprehensively take into account the country’s resource potential, demographic and economic growth, improvements in energy efficiency, the development of renewable and nuclear energy, and energy security. It is proposed that the concept be reviewed every five years.

The President emphasized that every new energy project must meet the long-term needs of the economy and the population and that a constant balance must be maintained among generation, grid load, and consumption.

The responsible officials were instructed to ensure the timely commissioning of major projects currently under implementation, take specific measures in coordination with investors to address projects facing implementation delays, ensure the balanced development of generating capacity and power grids, expand energy storage systems, and introduce a new planning and management model for the sector.

UzA